First Lesson Part 2

Wow! First I want to thank everyone for the amazing enthusiasm and feedback. Many of you sent me your answer to part 1 in email or text. My mistake was not making clear that you could click in the newsletter to submit your choice.

Hey, I’m a poker expert, but still learning this newsletter game.

If you haven’t submitted your answer, or completely missed part one, please head over to the website and submit your answer here:

Now for part 2!

My thought process

What are our opponent’s likely holdings? (This is the first question you should always be asking)

Even for an aggressive whale a $300 c/r into the preflop raiser signifies strength. He likes his hand. I immediately narrowed his holdings in rough order of probability:

• the Ace of clubs with an offsuit kicker AKA the nut flush draw

• a set

• a flush (50/50 smaller/bigger than mine)

• weak combos like Tx9c or complete bluffs

We will disregard his weakest holdings and complete bluffs because those are the smallest part of his range and we are unlikely to get much more money from those hands no matter what.

If we are right about his holdings, what action will win us the most money? The answer is to get allin immediately! There is no need to slow play or be tricky. He is a whale. We know he likes his hand. He will call with a smaller flush. If he has the A of clubs? I promise you this guy, like 90% of mid stakes players, has never folded a flop with the nut flush draw. Ditto for a set.

Would calling or min raising here be a disaster? No, but there are too many possible turn cards that kill our action or simply discourage us from betting. If we see another club he will fold a hand like 4c3c to a big bet. If the board pairs we won’t get another $1000 from an A high flush draw.

Key Concept:

Anytime there is a whale at the table you are in a race with your opponents to win those chips. Now is not the time to be timid.

At the table I quickly made up my mind and shoved. He snap called and turned over Ac3h. He actually misheard the dealers declaration of “$2050” and put $2500 into the pot. The dealer returned the extra $450 but his insensitivity to the size of my bet only further illustrates that an allin here is correct.

Against a different opponent we can call, or make a small raise. But this guy? He would have gotten in $5000 if he could.

The result: He missed his 7 ours and I won everything.

One of the first lessons I want my students to learn is not to rely on habit. Don’t play every flush or set the same! Always be asking “What do I know about my opponent? What do they have? How do I win the most money?”

This is what Real Poker Coaching is about. Correcting your mindset so that by asking the best questions you get the best result. Every hand.

When you are ready to take your poker to the next level, let me know and schedule your free 15 minute consultation. I will outline exactly what I can do for you to increase your win rate, starting from session #1.

Peter

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